Use seasonal COP
Heat pump savings depend on climate, building heat loss, system sizing, electricity prices and seasonal performance. Use a seasonal COP or SCOP estimate rather than a best-case lab value from mild test conditions.
Example
If a home needs 12,000 kWh of heat per year and the current heat cost is 0.16 per kWh, the current annual cost is 1,920. With a seasonal COP of 3, the heat pump uses about 4,000 kWh of electricity. At 0.18 per kWh, that costs 720, saving about 1,200 per year before maintenance or financing.
Common mistakes
Do not compare fuel cost directly to electricity cost without adjusting for COP. Also avoid using a best-case COP if your winter climate is colder, your home has high heat loss, or the system often needs backup heat.
Limitations
This is not an installer quote. Incentives, ductwork, electrical upgrades, maintenance, defrost cycles, backup heat and comfort requirements can change the real payback period.
Last reviewed: 2026-05-17